I_PREDICT_SPORT
Derivative markets — exact model prices vs the books
Markets: Match winner · Derivatives (set 1 · exact score · totals)
Fair values are computed in closed form from the same engine that prices the match board — set-1 winner, exact set score, and expected games per match. Strategy column: BUY at ask only when the fair value clears the ask plus fees with margin (rare on tight books, by design); rest bid = a maker limit order below fair value on soft, wide-spread books (exact-score books are typically 5-8¢ wide — crossing the spread there gives the edge away). Total-games fair values are shown for reference and not traded pending calibration. Paper/analytical only — not financial advice.
Aleksandar Vukic vs Aziz Dougaz
Set-1 Vukic 43% · straight sets 18% / 33% · expected games 25.1 · set score: 0-2: 33% · 1-2: 28% · 2-0: 18% · 2-1: 21%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-1 | 0.21 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.18 (+2.8pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Aleksandar Vukic wins 2-0 | 0.18 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.15 (+3.1pp at quote) |
Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin
Set-1 O'Connell 59% · straight sets 35% / 17% · expected games 25.0 · set score: 0-2: 17% · 1-2: 20% · 2-0: 35% · 2-1: 29%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Christopher O'Connell wins 2-1 | 0.29 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.26 (+2.6pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Christopher O'Connell wins 2-0 | 0.35 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.32 (+3.1pp at quote) |
Trevor Svajda vs Elias Ymer
Set-1 Svajda 32% · straight sets 10% / 46% · expected games 24.6 · set score: 0-2: 46% · 1-2: 30% · 2-0: 10% · 2-1: 14%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Trevor Svajda wins 2-1 | 0.14 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.11 (+3.0pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Trevor Svajda wins 2-0 | 0.10 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.07 (+3.3pp at quote) |
Marcos Giron vs Aryan Shah
Set-1 Giron 68% · straight sets 46% / 10% · expected games 25.1 · set score: 0-2: 11% · 1-2: 14% · 2-0: 46% · 2-1: 30%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Marcos Giron wins 2-1 | 0.30 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.27 (+2.6pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Marcos Giron wins 2-0 | 0.46 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.43 (+2.7pp at quote) |
Zachary Svajda vs Stefan Kozlov
Set-1 Svajda 83% · straight sets 70% / 3% · expected games 22.3 · set score: 0-2: 3% · 1-2: 5% · 2-0: 70% · 2-1: 23%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Zachary Svajda wins 2-1 | 0.23 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.20 (+3.1pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Zachary Svajda wins 2-0 | 0.70 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.67 (+2.6pp at quote) |
Remy Bertola vs Andre Ilagan
Set-1 Bertola 64% · straight sets 41% / 13% · expected games 25.2 · set score: 0-2: 13% · 1-2: 17% · 2-0: 41% · 2-1: 29%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Remy Bertola wins 2-1 | 0.29 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.26 (+3.5pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Remy Bertola wins 2-0 | 0.41 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.38 (+2.6pp at quote) |
Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Blockx
Set-1 Darderi 50% · straight sets 25% / 25% · expected games 25.5 · set score: 0-2: 25% · 1-2: 25% · 2-0: 25% · 2-1: 25%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Luciano Darderi wins 2-1 | 0.25 | 0.20/0.25 | 319.01 | no edge |
| EXACTMATCH | Luciano Darderi wins 2-0 | 0.25 | 0.35/0.40 | 364.86 | no edge |
Kimmer Coppejans vs Martin Damm
Set-1 Coppejans 50% · straight sets 24% / 26% · expected games 25.5 · set score: 0-2: 26% · 1-2: 25% · 2-0: 24% · 2-1: 25%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-1 | 0.25 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.22 (+2.7pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Kimmer Coppejans wins 2-0 | 0.24 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.21 (+3.5pp at quote) |
Moez Echargui vs Jordan Lee
Set-1 Echargui 62% · straight sets 39% / 14% · expected games 25.0 · set score: 0-2: 14% · 1-2: 18% · 2-0: 39% · 2-1: 29%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Moez Echargui wins 2-1 | 0.29 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.26 (+3.3pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Moez Echargui wins 2-0 | 0.39 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.36 (+2.7pp at quote) |
Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys
Set-1 Bublik 50% · straight sets 25% / 25% · expected games 25.7 · set score: 0-2: 25% · 1-2: 25% · 2-0: 25% · 2-1: 25%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Alexander Bublik wins 2-1 | 0.25 | 0.25/0.27 | 1960.95 | no edge |
| EXACTMATCH | Alexander Bublik wins 2-0 | 0.25 | 0.42/0.44 | 1298.41 | no edge |
Alex Bolt vs James McCabe
Set-1 Bolt 72% · straight sets 51% / 8% · expected games 24.2 · set score: 0-2: 8% · 1-2: 11% · 2-0: 51% · 2-1: 29%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Alex Bolt wins 2-1 | 0.29 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.26 (+3.1pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Alex Bolt wins 2-0 | 0.51 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.48 (+3.4pp at quote) |
Dusan Lajovic vs Cruz Hewitt
Set-1 Lajovic 40% · straight sets 16% / 36% · expected games 24.8 · set score: 0-2: 36% · 1-2: 29% · 2-0: 16% · 2-1: 19%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Dusan Lajovic wins 2-1 | 0.19 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.16 (+3.1pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Dusan Lajovic wins 2-0 | 0.16 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.13 (+2.8pp at quote) |
Edas Butvilas vs Mackenzie McDonald
Set-1 Butvilas 76% · straight sets 57% / 6% · expected games 23.4 · set score: 0-2: 6% · 1-2: 9% · 2-0: 57% · 2-1: 28%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Edas Butvilas wins 2-1 | 0.28 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.25 (+2.9pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Edas Butvilas wins 2-0 | 0.57 | 0.00/0.87 | 0 | rest bid 0.54 (+3.2pp at quote) |
Hugo Gaston vs Luca Van Assche
Set-1 Gaston 46% · straight sets 21% / 29% · expected games 24.8 · set score: 0-2: 29% · 1-2: 27% · 2-0: 21% · 2-1: 23%
| Market | Outcome | Fair | Bid/Ask | Vol | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXACTMATCH | Hugo Gaston wins 2-1 | 0.23 | 0.17/0.21 | 1633.0 | rest bid 0.20 (+2.8pp at quote) |
| EXACTMATCH | Hugo Gaston wins 2-0 | 0.21 | 0.19/0.23 | 0 | no edge |