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ATP match prediction using the latest computational models. Updated Jul 25, 2026 1:31 AM ET.

Match board — ranked by model-vs-market divergence

Markets: Match winner · Derivatives (set 1 · exact score · totals)

TournamentMatchStart (ET)PlayeriPredict win %Kalshi bid/askPoly bid/askEdgeConfidence
Generali OpenAlexander Bublik vs Quentin HalysJul 25, 7:00 AMQuentin Halys underdog41%0.31/0.330.32/0.33+8ppmedium
Tampere Challengerwatch Gauthier Onclin vs Diego Dedura-PalomeroJul 25, 9:00 AMGauthier Onclin58%0.38/0.390.38/0.39+19pplow
Why: Onclin ranked higher than Dedura-Palomero (#217 vs unranked); Onclin is at peak age; our point-by-point serve/return model independently rates Onclin at 72%; both model heads pick Onclin  ·  Top factors: serve/return Elo mildly for Onclin (+3pp); ranking mildly for Onclin (+2pp); clutch record mildly against Onclin (-2pp); fatigue/schedule mildly against Onclin (-1pp)  ·  Conditions: court: hard; no weather forecast available; no known injuries
Mubadala Citi DC OpenAleksandar Vukic vs Aziz DougazJul 25, 10:00 AMAziz Dougaz underdog48%0.25/0.270.24/0.32+21pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenAlex Bolt vs James McCabeJul 25, 10:00 AMJames McCabe52%0.40/0.450.38/0.45+7pplow
Millennium Estoril OpenHugo Gaston vs Luca Van AsscheJul 25, 10:00 AMHugo Gaston underdog42%0.39/0.400.38/0.39+2ppmedium
Tampere ChallengerOtto Virtanen vs Maks KasnikowskiJul 25, 10:10 AMOtto Virtanen65%0.63/0.640.61/0.62+1pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenZachary Svajda vs Stefan KozlovJul 25, 11:30 AMStefan Kozlov underdog28%0.15/0.190.07/0.21+9ppmedium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenRemy Bertola vs Andre IlaganJul 25, 11:30 AMAndre Ilagan underdog46%0.33/0.370.30/0.39+9pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenBilly Harris vs Abdullah ShelbayhJul 25, 11:30 AMBilly Harris51%no mkt yet——low
Zug ChallengerThiago Seyboth Wild vs Dylan DietrichJul 25, 12:00 PMThiago Seyboth Wild67%0.39/0.410.40/0.41+26pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenMarcos Giron vs Aryan ShahJul 25, 1:00 PMAryan Shah underdog26%0.10/0.120.07/0.39 wide+14ppmedium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenMoez Echargui vs Jordan LeeJul 25, 1:00 PMJordan Lee underdog35%0.11/0.26 wide0.05/0.14—low
Mubadala Citi DC OpenDusan Lajovic vs Cruz HewittJul 25, 1:00 PMCruz Hewitt underdog30%0.12/0.210.11/0.15+9ppmedium
Mubadala Citi DC OpenChristopher O'Connell vs Andres MartinJul 25, 1:00 PMAndres Martin underdog39%0.14/0.210.17/0.25+18pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenTrevor Svajda vs Elias YmerJul 25, 1:00 PMTrevor Svajda53%0.34/0.390.33/0.94 wide+14pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenKimmer Coppejans vs Martin DammJul 25, 1:00 PMKimmer Coppejans underdog33%0.23/0.260.20/0.27+7pplow
Mubadala Citi DC OpenEdas Butvilas vs Mackenzie McDonaldJul 25, 1:00 PMEdas Butvilas underdog45%0.37/0.410.34/0.44+4ppmedium
Millennium Estoril OpenLuciano Darderi vs Alexander BlockxJul 25, 2:00 PMAlexander Blockx underdog45%0.36/0.370.37/0.38+8ppmedium
—watch Keegan Smith vs Luka PavlovicJul 25, 2:00 PMLuka Pavlovic58%0.45/0.460.45/0.46+12pplow
Why: Pavlovic is at peak age; both model heads pick Pavlovic; a second independent rating (Tennis Abstract Elo) also has Pavlovic at 55%, close to our 58%  ·  Watch: match sim is notably more cautious (our point-by-point serve/return model independently rates Pavlovic at 39%, 39% vs our 58%) — the sim runs on serve/return stats, which are near-default for Smith (6 tour matches on record)  ·  Top factors: market prices mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); surface Elo mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); age curve mildly for Pavlovic (+2pp); ensemble boosts the sim's input (+1pp)  ·  Conditions: court: hard; no weather forecast available; no known injuries
Zug ChallengerMarc-Andrea Huesler vs Max Hans RehbergJul 25, 2:00 PMMarc-Andrea Huesler56%0.54/0.550.54/0.55+1pplow
Segovia ChallengerMatteo Martineau vs Oliver CrawfordJul 25, 4:00 PMMatteo Martineau underdog48%0.30/0.330.32/0.33+15pplow
Bloomfield Hills ChallengerMichael Zheng vs Jacob FearnleyJul 25, 4:00 PMMichael Zheng63%0.57/0.600.59/0.60+3pplow
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoBernard Tomic vs Miguel TobonJul 25, 9:00 PMBernard Tomic53%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoGarrett Johns vs Alan MagadanJul 25, 9:00 PMAlan Magadan56%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoNicolas Mejia vs Alex HernandezJul 25, 10:30 PMNicolas Mejia74%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoAlan Fernando Rubio Fierros vs Soonwoo KwonJul 25, 10:30 PMSoonwoo Kwon72%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoAidan Mayo vs Borna GojoJul 26, 12:00 AMBorna Gojo65%listed, no book——low
Mifel Tennis Open by Telcel OppoEdward Winter vs Luis Carlos AlvarezJul 26, 12:00 AMLuis Carlos Alvarez53%listed, no book——low

One row per match, Kalshi-priced or not. Highlighted rows (green edge) are the ones the model's betting layer would actually stake: the price edge passed every gate, including a second model that scores how likely the edge is REAL (a big edge against a thin-data player usually isn't). All other rows are dimmed — the prediction stands, but the model would not bet it; a dimmed row can show high confidence AND a large edge and still be a pass, because confidence measures how reliable the win probability is, not whether the market price is beatable. Best bet is the side with the most value against its own ask — often the underdog (a 20%-chance player is a great buy at a 5¢ ask). "—" means no open Kalshi market. Poly bid/ask is the same pick side on Polymarket (a second exchange) — bid/ask when a book is available, else its last trade; those markets can trade in-play and some Challenger/ITF books are thin (wide spreads, low size), so treat Poly as a second venue snapshot, not a sharp fair price.

News & injury watch

PlayerStatusLatest (Grok, verified sources not guaranteed)
Marcos GironclearNo known injury or illness; active on tour.

Injury status is checked for every Kalshi-priced match; news lines cover highlighted matches only. AI-summarized — treat as a pointer, not a source.

Not financial advice. This page is for match prediction only and is not intended for betting or gambling. Model probabilities are estimates from public data (~66% holdout accuracy); the pre-match market is usually sharper. Odds shown from prediction markets and oddsmakers are subject to change and may not be accurate or current. Low-confidence rows involve players the model has little history on. No stake recommendations are published here. If you gamble, size responsibly and expect variance.